For much of 2020, we were locked in our homes and have been waiting for life to return to normal. Thanks to government transfer payments, even those who lost their jobs saved money. According to the New York Times, in 2020, personal income increased by over $1 trillion and spending decreased by over $530 million. This means that American consumers are sitting on a $1.5 trillion war chest that is ready to be unleashed in the years ahead. If January retail sales are a hint of what's to come in 2021, retail spending will be powerful.

Shop til you drop

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In January, retail sales jumped +10.8% year over year. That's the biggest increase since 1999. This is a stunning number because we aren't even comping the lockdown months yet. Just wait until we hit March and April where we will be comping -2.6% and -15.3% respectively. The April retail sales will be above 35% growth!

With COVID cases dropping like a rock and vaccinations increasing, Americans will soon be traveling and spending in force. The tidal wave of spending has just begun.


Header photo from Unsplash freestocks

By Chris Wang