Happy New Year! We hope that you had a wonderful holiday season, and we wish you a prosperous and healthy 2025!
A year ago, Wall Street's S&P 500 forecasts were a mixed bag. Yardeni Research was the most bullish with a 5400 target, while JP Morgan offered a shockingly bearish prediction of a 12% decline. The average strategist forecast pointed to a modest 3.8% return.
Fast forward to the end of 2024, and the S&P 500 delivered its second consecutive year of 20%+ returns, finishing up over 23%—significantly exceeding even the most optimistic predictions.
Looking ahead to 2025, predictions are the most bullish I've observed since I began tracking these forecasts in 2014. The average projected return for the S&P 500 is 6736, a gain of +14.5%.
Oppenheimer leads the bulls with a target of 7100 (+20%), while UBS is the most cautious (though still bullish) with a target of 6400 (+8.8%). Wall Street clearly anticipates the current bull market to continue into 2025.
Predictions for 2025
After looking at all the Wall Street reports, here are the targets from Wall Street's top strategists.
The chart above shows the most up-to-date price targets and potential upside/downside percentage changes from the S&P closing price on December 31, 2024.
The Bull: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer
Stoltzfus bases his bullish outlook on several factors, including current US monetary policy, resilient economic growth, robust business activity, strong consumer spending, and continued job creation.
He notes that the broadening of the equity rally over the past year suggests that “the current bull market likely has legs strong enough to climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry' into and through 2025.”
The (Relatively) Cautious Bull: Jonathan Golub, UBS
UBS’s Jonathan Golub falls within the cluster of strategists forecasting near-average returns, projecting the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 6,400.
“After a rally this year through Trump’s cabinet appointments, we see mild downside in equities in H1 next year amid a step down in US growth,” UBS analysts wrote. “Once earnings estimates have fallen to more realistic levels, H2 ’25 should be better.”
After two consecutive strong years for the S&P 500, investors would likely be pleased with any of these bullish predictions.
All the best in 2025!
What do you think will happen in 2025? Are you a bull or a bear for the New Year?
“bull market” by mikecohen1872 is licensed under CC BY 2.0
